War and Peace in the Taiwan Strait

As tensions continue to rise between Washington and Beijing, Taiwan's political, economic, and security statuses become more and more of a powder keg that many have worried may explode into military conflict. How concerned, however, should we truly be about the possibility of such conflict in the Taiwan Strait? Certainly, the stability of Taiwan's relationship with China has juggled between hopeful and treacherous; while Taiwan's promising 2008 elections brought fruitful and frequent dialogue across theStrait with China scaling back its overt military threats during President Ma Ying-jeou's first term, negotiations soured in his second term and led to the 2016 election of President Tsai Ing-wen, who has refused to endorse any version of the one China"principle. Beijing, in turn, has increased military and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan. Kastner takes a three-argument approach in his analysis of the prospects of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. First, through exploring trends that include deepening economic integration, a shifting balance of military power, continued US commitment, and domestic political changes in both Taiwan and China, Kastner believes the likelihood of conflict in the Taiwan Strait has reduced significantly than in the past. Looking toward Taiwan's future, however, there is much potential for high destabilization due to the continuing cross-Strait military balance of power, a point not yet fully appreciated in existing writing on the Taiwan Strait. Despite this second point, Kastner ultimately outlines several plausible pathways through which both Taiwan and China can avoid military conflict"--